Snapshot: The DAX 40 has paused its six-day winning streak, trading just below the key 25,000 level as a heavy 4% ex-dividend drop in Volkswagen offsets upgraded European equity targets from Goldman Sachs and Barclays. Domestic disinflation remains firmly on track with German and Eurozone HICP both printing at 2.0%, keeping the ECB easing cycle supportive despite a lack of fresh dovishness from Elderson and Cipollone this morning. This European consolidation is being reinforced by global crosscurrents, as a bounce in oil prices and rising US yields inject some caution ahead of the New York open.
- Key Levels: Support at 24,800/850 should hold; structural buyers are actively defending dips as automakers recover on EU-China tariff headlines and defense names like Rheinmetall gain 1.6%.
- NY Risk Factor: Watch the pre-market momentum in US cash futures; yesterday’s 15bp spike in the US 2Y yield to 4.2% and the VIX rising to 18.44 will cap European upside if US macro data prints hot at 08:30 ET.
Bias into NY: We hold a constructive bias above 24,800, looking to buy the dip as the ECB’s structural policy pivot remains the dominant medium-term driver for the German index, even if high-beta US tech dictates the intraday afternoon speed.