Snapshot: The Aussie is holding firm above the 0.7000 level, underpinned by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s persistent reluctance to cut rates while domestic services inflation remains uneven. This hawkish domestic policy bias buffers the currency against broader greenback strength following Kevin Warsh’s debut Fed communications. High-frequency US manufacturing and labor data at 08:30 ET represent the next major volatility catalyst.
- The RBA’s 4.10% Cash Rate remains a solid yield anchor, with OIS markets still pricing a 50% probability of one final rate hike if upcoming trimmed-mean CPI prints hot.
- US jobless claims at 08:30 ET (forecast 225K) present immediate event risk; a strong print could trigger a broader risk-off move, lifting the VIX above 18.44 and dragging AUD lower on commodity cross-currents.
Bias into NY: We lean long AUD/USD targeting 0.7050, keeping a tight stop at 0.6980, as the RBA’s stubborn policy hawkishness continues to offset broader US yield pressures.