Snapshot: The DAX 40 has broken above the key 25,000 milestone to print fresh multi-week highs, heavily underpinned by yesterday’s ECB wage tracker confirming stable wage pressures for 2026. This domestic signal keeps the regional easing path intact alongside German inflation at 2%, giving macro allocators green-light clearance to rotate back into underperforming EU cash. Lower energy input costs provide an immediate tailwind, with WTI dropping 4.48% to $84.65 following the US-Iran interim shipping deal, lifting industrial heavyweights Siemens Energy and Airbus.
- Key levels: Tech outperformance led by Infineon (+4%) establishes a firm floor at the 25,000 psychological level, while Siemens (+1.4%) and Rheinmetall (+0.9%) offer solid cyclical support.
- NY session risks: Keep a close eye on the 08:30 ET US macro prints; any aggressive repricing of US 10-year yields (now 4.43%) post-Fed could briefly spill over into European duration assets.
Bias into NY: We are buyers of intraday dips down to 24,960, targeting a push toward 25,150. Safe-haven wage metrics and a clear path for the ECB outweigh any hawkish posturing from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.