Snapshot: WTI crude has plummeted below $75 per barrel, hitting its lowest level since early March on news of a US-Iran interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This breakthrough defuses a major geopolitical supply risk, paving the way for millions of barrels of sidelined OPEC+ capacity to return. Ahead of the New York open, the market is digesting yesterday’s FOMC economic projections while waiting for the 08:30 ET Philly Fed and jobless claims prints to gauge US demand.
- Physical tightness provides a partial buffer as Cushing crude inventories remain compressed at around 20 million barrels, though last week’s 25,573-contract reduction in net-long positioning shows speculative conviction is rapidly evaporating.
- The 08:30 ET Philly Fed manufacturing index (forecast 9.8) is the primary risk-catalyst for the morning session, with any disappointment threatening to accelerate the liquidation.
Bias into NY: We are structurally bearish into the NY open, targeting a break toward $73.50 as the supply-side shock dominates, with a rising VIX at 18.44 compounding the pressure on risk assets.