Snapshot: The Australian Dollar is trading firmly above 0.7000, underpinned by the RBA holding its Cash Rate at 4.10% and Governor Bullock’s reluctance to ease policy amid sticky services inflation and a tight labour market. This domestic hawkishness, which has kept the odds of a final rate hike near 50%, faces immediate headline risk from the US Philly Fed and weekly jobless claims prints at 08:30 ET.
- Strong domestic structural support at 0.7000 remains intact as the RBA’s reluctance to join the global easing cycle limits downside room.
- Risk appetite into the NY session is highly sensitive to the US 2Y yield holding at 4.05% and WTI crude’s recent 4.48% slide to 84.65, which could pressure commodity-linked sentiment if energy weakness spills over.
Bias into NY: We maintain a tactical long bias targeting a move toward 0.7050, as the RBA’s hawkish policy divergence shields the Aussie against minor USD strength, provided the 0.7000 handle holds through the 08:30 ET US data round.