Snapshot: WTI Crude has plunged below $75 per barrel, hitting its lowest level since early March, as a landmark US-Iran agreement paves the way to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz. This massive physical supply shock completely overrides yesterday’s economic projections from the FOMC, turning all eyes to the 08:30 ET Philly Fed and Jobless Claims data to assess the demand floor.
- Physical flows are already recovering as Saudi crude and LNG tankers resume transit, which will quickly replenish global balances even with Cushing inventories currently tight at 20 million barrels.
- While net-long positioning is only modest at +130,301 contracts (52nd percentile), any weakness in the 08:30 ET US macro prints will trigger further systematic liquidations.
Bias into NY: Bearish, targeting a clean break of $74.00. The massive return of Persian Gulf supply is the dominant narrative, and a softer dollar index at 119.51 will do little to cushion this physical liquidation.