Snapshot: The Swiss Franc is holding firm near 0.8900 per dollar following the SNB’s decision at 09:30 CET to hold its policy rate at 0.00%. While the central bank upgraded its inflation forecasts through 2028, the key takeaway is Schlegel’s explicit readiness to conduct active FX interventions to curb safe-haven Swissy strength. Today’s price action reflects a market repricing a less aggressive Swiss easing path before US data at 08:30 ET.
- The SNB’s hawkish shift on inflation projections, alongside Schlegel’s warning on FX intervention, establishes a firm floor under the Franc, especially with CFTC speculative positioning still moderately short at the 29th percentile.
- For the NY session, the US Unemployment Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 08:30 ET are the immediate catalysts to watch for any broader USD-driven breakout.
Bias into NY: We favor buying the Franc on USD/CHF rallies toward 0.8940, targeting a move down to 0.8820. The SNB’s active posture on currency intervention and upgraded inflation outlook will likely cap any USD-driven upside, even if US data prints hot.