Snapshot: The DAX 40 has broken above the pivotal 25,000 mark to print fresh highs, supported by domestic disinflation confirmation as the ECB wage tracker points to stable negotiated wage pressures. German HICP holding at 2% YoY provides a clear runway for ECB policy normalization, while this constructive domestic backdrop is further amplified by a 4.5% slide in WTI crude to $84.65 following progress on a Middle East ceasefire.
- Key Signal: The clean daily break above the 25,000 handle signals structural bullish continuation, with local support now established at the 24,950 breakout zone and leadership driven by Infineon and Siemens.
- NY Session Risk: US macro prints at 08:30 ET present headline risk, but the domestic narrative is insulated by institutional inflows as desks act on JPMorgan’s call to buy lagging European cyclicals.
Bias into NY: We are buyers of intraday dips targeting 25,180. The domestic reality of anchored 2% Eurozone inflation and stable wages keeps the ECB on a path of gradual easing, keeping DAX risk premium low regardless of any near-term Fed hawkishness.