Snapshot: The DAX 40 has cleared the 25,000 milestone for the first time since early June, driven by stabilizing negotiated wage pressures that pave the way for a supportive ECB. Yesterday’s ECB wage tracker and the drop in German HICP to 2% have solidified the domestic disinflation narrative. This provides a robust foundation for equities, which is further amplified by a 4.5% plunge in WTI crude to $84.65 following an interim US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
- Germany’s industrial champions are leading the charge, with Siemens Energy up 2.2% and Infineon rallying over 4.0% as falling input costs and stable eurozone yields support expansion.
- US macro prints at 08:30 ET represent the primary risk to the session, where any hawkish inflation indicators could halt the cross-asset risk bid.
Bias into NY: We are buyers of the German index above 24,950, targeting a run toward 25,150 into the NY cash open as the combination of cooling domestic wage growth and cheaper energy feeds the European industrial recovery.