Snapshot: USD/CHF is consolidating near the 0.8800 level after the Swiss National Bank held its policy rate steady at 0.00% at 09:30 CET. The decision was accompanied by upgraded inflation forecasts through 2028 and a sharpened warning that the central bank stands ready for active FX intervention to curb undue Franc strength. This defensive policy shift caps USD/CHF upside, establishing a firm floor for the Swissy ahead of North American trade.
- The SNB’s upgraded inflation path signals a very high bar for any return to negative rates, threatening the market’s moderately short positioning currently sitting at the 29th percentile.
- Watch the US Philly Fed and weekly jobless claims at 08:30 ET; a soft print will amplify downward pressure on USD/CHF by dragging US Treasury yields below their current levels.
Bias into NY: We lean bearish USD/CHF toward 0.8740, as the SNB’s explicit intervention threat effectively caps the pair, with any US data weakness likely to accelerate the downside.