Snapshot: Brent crude has broken below the $78 per barrel threshold, printing its lowest level since early March as physical supply anxieties collapse following an interim US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While shipping flows restart in the Persian Gulf, the immediate downside remains structurally cooped up by US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks sitting at their lowest levels since 1983 and Cushing inventories tight at 20 million barrels. Today’s pre-market focus pivots to the 08:30 ET US jobless claims and Philly Fed prints for near-term demand cues.
- Hormuz supply relief: The resumption of Saudi and Iraqi shipping through the Persian Gulf threatens to bring millions of barrels of sidelined output back online, completely overwhelming the supportive backdrop of yesterday’s FOMC-induced slip in US real yields.
- NY session watch-item: Watch the 08:30 ET US macro double-header; any positive surprise in the Philly Fed index (forecast 9.8) could spark a tactical short-covering bounce given the extremely tight inventory cushions in the US.
Bias into NY: We hold a tactical bearish bias targeting $76.50, as the physical resolution of the Gulf shipping block easily trumps local inventory constraints and the broader slide in the USD Broad Index to 119.50.