Snapshot: Crude oil is trading below $76 per barrel, hovering near its lowest levels since early March as physical supply headwinds dominate. Anticipation of a US-Iran interim deal expected this Friday is driving expectations of an immediate return of Iranian exports and the release of over 100 laden tankers. Today’s action will face further volatility around the 08:30 ET US Retail Sales print and the 14:00 ET FOMC rate decision.
- The massive 8.3 million-barrel weekly crude inventory draw reported by industry estimates indicates tight prompt physical markets, but this supportive signal is being entirely overridden by the liquidation of geopolitical risk premium.
- A clean break of the $75.00 level triggers immediate downside acceleration ahead of Friday’s expected diplomatic signing, particularly if hawkish economic projections at the 14:00 ET FOMC meeting offer secondary support to the US dollar.
Bias into NY: We are bearish into the New York open, targeting a clean run to $74.20 as structural supply return fears override short-term inventory draws, with dollar-centric volatility around the FOMC acting as a secondary driver.