Snapshot: The Aussie is holding firm above the 0.7000 level, underpinned by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stubborn reluctance to cut its 4.10% cash rate target while domestic services inflation remains uneven. This yield support keeps the currency resilient ahead of a heavy US macro slate, which starts with Retail Sales at 08:30 ET and culminates in the FOMC policy decision at 14:00 ET.
- The RBA’s persistent caution over a tight domestic labour market keeps Aussie yields supported, with speculator positioning currently at a moderate +18,160 net long contracts (63rd percentile), leaving ample room for further structural buying.
- The main near-term risk centers on the 14:00 ET FOMC economic projections and the 14:30 ET press conference, where any hawkish US rate guidance could temporarily disrupt the Aussie’s recovery path.
Bias into NY: Tactical buy-on-dips above 0.7000; the RBA’s hawkish policy inertia provides a solid fundamental floor, meaning any USD-driven weakness post-FOMC at 14:00 ET should find eager buyers looking to target 0.7060.