Snapshot: WTI crude hovers below $76 per barrel ahead of the New York open, heavily weighed down by expectations of an imminent US-Iran interim agreement that could immediately unleash stored offshore supply. While the previous session’s 8.3 million-barrel US inventory draw provides a structural cushion, near-term direction hinges on this supply threat alongside the 14:00 ET FOMC rate decision.
- The potential Friday signing of the nuclear pact could release more than 100 oil-laden tankers currently stuck in the Gulf, threatening to break key support at $75.00.
- Watch the 14:30 ET FOMC press conference where any hawkish commentary could support the US Dollar Broad Index (currently at 119.5073) and compound pressure on the energy complex.
Bias into NY: We are tactically bearish into the NY session, targeting a test of $75.00 as physical supply expansion risks dominate, though a weaker USD following the 08:30 ET retail sales print could briefly slow the descent.