Snapshot: WTI crude is trading below $76 per barrel, languishing at its lowest level since early March as the physical market braces for immediate supply risk from a looming US-Iran interim deal on Friday. This massive potential influx of Iranian barrels completely offsets a supportive 8.3 million-barrel draw in US crude inventories reported by industry estimates. Price action today will face additional volatility from US Retail Sales at 08:30 ET and the crucial FOMC policy decision at 14:00 ET.
- The technical breakdown below $76.00 signals a regime shift, with speculative positioning sitting neutral at the 52nd percentile, leaving plenty of room for fresh short sellers to build momentum.
- The key risk for the NY session is any headline indicating a delay in Friday’s expected Iran signing, which would trigger immediate short-covering given that geopolitical risk premium has already been heavily discounted.
Bias into NY: We hold a bearish bias targeting $74.50, as imminent Iranian supply and clearing shipping backlogs drive physical pricing lower, even if a potential post-FOMC dollar slide limits the intraday downside.