Snapshot: Brent crude has plunged below $79 per barrel, touching its lowest level since early March as physical supply dynamics shift rapidly ahead of an expected US-Iran interim agreement this Friday. This looming deal threatens to immediately release over 100 stuck tankers and ease Strait of Hormuz shipping restrictions, delivering a supply deluge that is compounded by the IEA slashing global demand forecasts on war-induced demand destruction. While US macro data at 08:30 ET and the FOMC at 14:00 ET will inject dollar volatility, physical market loosening is firmly in the driving seat.
- Watch the key $78.00 support level; a clean break exposes the February lows, entirely overriding the support from last week’s 8.3 million-barrel US inventory draw.
- The 14:00 ET FOMC statement and economic projections pose a key macro risk, where any hawkish messaging will bolster the USD Broad Index (currently 119.5073) and worsen the commodity squeeze.
Bias into NY: Bearish. The looming Friday supply-unlock keeps rallies capped, favoring a test of $77.20 during the session as the market aggressively prices out geopolitical risk premiums.