Snapshot: Crude oil is hovering below $76 per barrel this morning, pinned near multi-month lows as the market braces for a potential US-Iran interim agreement on Friday that could immediately unlock massive supply. This looming export return is completely overshadowing a deep 8.3 million-barrel draw in US crude inventories reported by industry data. While physical flows dictate the immediate tape, the 14:00 ET FOMC policy decision remains the overarching macro risk.
- Supply Floods: Watch the Friday timeline for the interim deal; a formal signing allows immediate vessel repositioning in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening a swift retest of $74.00.
- Macro Cross-Currents: The 14:00 ET FOMC dot plot and subsequent presser at 14:30 ET represent a major volatility catalyst, where any hawkish surprise will amplify the commodity’s downside via a stronger US dollar.
Bias into NY: Bearish bias targeting $74.50. The structural reality of returning Iranian barrels limits any near-term upside, and we expect sellers to fade any short-covering rallies sparked by the 08:30 ET US Retail Sales data.