Snapshot: Crude oil has plunged over 4% to trade below $78 per barrel, extending its losing streak to a fourth session as expectations mount for a Friday US-Iran interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This structural supply-side breakthrough offsets historically depleted US emergency reserves, which remain at their lowest level since 1983. The normalization of regional flows is driving prices to their lowest levels since early March.
- Technical Support: The next major floor is $75.00, with CFTC spec net-longs at a neutral 52nd percentile, suggesting there is ample room for fresh shorts to build without immediate squeeze risk.
- NY Session Risk: Headline risk remains high regarding the implementation details of the Swiss accord; any friction over shipping security could trigger a violent short-covering squeeze, amplified by a softer US dollar (DXY at 119.5073).
Bias into NY: Tactically bearish below $78.50. We look to sell rallies targeting $76.20 as the imminent return of Hormuz barrels overrides minor structural support from a softer greenback.