Snapshot: Brent crude has plunged below the $80 mark to a three-month low, sliding over 3% today on top of Monday’s 4.8% rout, as physical supply anxiety unwinds. The selloff is driven by expectations that a US-Iran ceasefire extension and an interim deal expected on Friday in Switzerland will fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and release sidelined Iranian tanker flows.
- Support at $78.50 is the next key level to watch as Iranian tankers reportedly resume shipping, threatening to rapidly rebuild depleted global inventories that have dragged US emergency reserves to their lowest level since 1983.
- Keep a close eye on G7 headline risk out of Évian-les-Bains; European officials are openly doubting the optimistic Friday reopening timeline, creating a highly asymmetric short-squeeze risk if Swiss negotiations stall.
Bias into NY: Tactically bearish with a target of $78.00, as the resumption of physical flows through Hormuz dominates the tape, while a softer USD Broad Index at 119.50 provides only minor support to the downside.