Snapshot: Brent crude has plunged below the critical $80.00/bbl threshold for the first time since March, shedding more than 3% today as optimism swells around an imminent US-Iran interim agreement. The prospect of reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming Iranian tanker flows has triggered a four-day liquidation cycle, overshadowing structural inventory deficits.
- Technical Pivot: Having broken the major psychological support at $80.00/bbl, the path of least resistance points toward the March low of $78.20, although depleted US emergency reserves at 1983 lows provide a medium-term physical floor.
- NY Session Catalyst: Watch for G7 headlines from Évian-les-Bains; European diplomatic pushback against Donald Trump’s Friday reopening timeline represents a major short-squeeze risk if implementation doubts grow.
Bias into NY: We remain tactically bearish targeting $78.20/bbl, as the sheer weight of returning supply flows dominates price action, even as a broader risk-on environment and a lower VIX at 16.2 help stabilize cross-asset equities.