Snapshot: AUD/USD trades at 0.7176, up 0.15%, buoyed by firmer copper prices (down only -0.32% despite broader risk-off signals). RBA reluctance to signal cuts, despite easing inflation and spending, remains the dominant driver; all eyes will be on next week’s GDP figures for confirmation of the macro trend.
- Watch 0.7200 as potential resistance, a break of which could signal a more sustained rally.
- Squeeze risk is elevated given the crowded long positioning (98th percentile), making AUD vulnerable to any hawkish surprises elsewhere or further commodity wobbles.
Bias into NY: Mildly bullish above 0.7150 as long as copper holds its ground; however, the crowded positioning and RBA’s hawkish lean leave AUD/USD susceptible to a downside correction if US yields gain traction.