Snapshot: USD/CHF is trading at 0.7869, up +0.03% today, as the Swiss National Bank maintains an active easing posture. The SNB’s willingness to consider negative rates if disinflation accelerates continues to weigh on the Franc. Focus shifts to Schlegel’s speech at 13:00 CET.
- Watch for a break above 0.7900 in USD/CHF, which would confirm further unwinding of short-CHF positions.
- The 08:30 ET US Core PCE and GDP releases pose downside risk to risk sentiment, which could see some CHF safe-haven buying.
Bias into NY: We lean towards further USD/CHF upside, targeting 0.7950, driven by the SNB’s dovish stance and the widening US-CH 10-year yield spread of +404bp. Stronger than expected US data could amplify the move.