Snapshot: EUR/JPY is trading around 170.00, down 0.15, weighed by increasing speculation of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike following robust wage data. With the ECB retaining a mild easing bias and the BoJ hinting at further tightening, the policy divergence suggests continued pressure on the cross.
- Key signal: Watch for a break below 169.50; sustained weakness there opens a path to 168.00.
- Risk: Any dovish signals from the BoJ at the next meeting on April 30th (JST) could trigger a sharp Euro/Yen bounce.
Bias into NY: Short EUR/JPY below 170.00, driven by the expectation of further BoJ normalisation and limited appetite for further ECB easing; a break of the recent low near 169.50 would provide confirmation.