Snapshot: Brent crude trades near $102, easing from earlier highs, as escalating tensions in the Middle East offset optimism from potential US-Iran talks. Trump’s warnings to Iran and continued blockage of Iranian ports amplify supply concerns, overshadowing reports of a proposed temporary waiver on oil sanctions.
- Watch for further escalation of tensions in the Persian Gulf after weekend infrastructure attacks.
- Risk: A surprise breakthrough in US-Iran talks could trigger a sharp pullback.
Bias into NY: Cautiously bullish on Brent, targeting a retest of $111, driven by heightened geopolitical risks outweighing any short-term reprieve from potential sanction waivers.