Snapshot: WTI crude is pushing above $104 this morning, up over 3% and on track for a 9% weekly gain, as supply anxieties related to the Strait of Hormuz crisis dominate the narrative. The limited tanker traffic out of the Persian Gulf since the conflict began is the primary driver.
- Watch for a break above $105, which could trigger further upside towards the recent highs.
- President Trump’s mixed messaging adds uncertainty; monitor for further comments.
Bias into NY: We favour further upside in US Oil towards $106, driven by the increasingly constrained supply picture, even as the US 2Y yield sits at 3.98%. Any easing of tensions in the region would present a significant downside risk.