Snapshot: NZD/USD grinds near $0.585, pressured by the firmly entrenched RBNZ easing bias. Last month’s 25bp rate cut to 3.50% and Governor Orr’s signal of further cuts if disinflation embeds remains the dominant driver. No fresh domestic data to shift the dial today.
- Watch for support near $0.5825, a break of which opens the door to further downside.
- Global inflation worries, as highlighted by climbing bond yields, could present upside risks to the Kiwi if it prompts a RBNZ rethink.
Bias into NY: Bearish on NZD/USD. The RBNZ’s dovish stance provides a strong headwind, and crowded short positioning reduces, but doesn’t eliminate, the risk of a squeeze. We look for Kiwi to test, then break $0.5825 this session.