Snapshot: AUD/USD is holding steady near $0.72, underpinned by the RBA’s reluctance to signal an imminent rate cut. Governor Bullock’s recent comments citing ‘uneven’ progress on inflation continue to resonate with the market. Focus shifts to the 08:30 ET US retail sales data.
- A softer-than-expected Q1 trimmed-mean CPI is still seen as the key to unlocking a May or July rate cut, making that print a crucial inflection point.
- Crowded long positioning in AUD leaves it vulnerable to a squeeze on any significant dovish surprises or risk-off sentiment.
Bias into NY: We lean neutral on AUD/USD into the NY session, with price action heavily dependent on the US retail sales data. A surprisingly strong print could pressure the Aussie toward $0.7150, while a miss could see a retest of recent highs.