Snapshot: GBP/JPY trades near 191.50, down slightly, after weaker-than-expected UK GDP prints this morning spurred increased speculation about an earlier Bank of England rate cut. The 07:00 London GDP releases will be the key focus in early New York trade.
- A break below 191.00 would signal further downside in GBP/JPY as markets price in a more dovish BoE outlook.
- Rising US real yields pose a potential headwind to GBP/JPY, particularly if risk sentiment deteriorates and the VIX spikes.
Bias into NY: Cautiously bearish on GBP/JPY. Disappointing UK GDP coupled with the BoE’s data-dependent stance keeps Sterling vulnerable; a continued bid in US rates would only amplify the downside pressure on the cross.