Snapshot: NZD/USD hovers around $0.593, weighed down by the RBNZ’s firmly entrenched easing bias. Governor Orr’s signal of further rate cuts if disinflation persists continues to cap Kiwi upside. The 08:30 ET US PPI print and subsequent reaction in risk could offer short-term direction.
- Watch 0.5900 as a key support; a break could trigger further downside towards 0.5850.
- Risk of a short squeeze given crowded short positioning (13th percentile), especially if US PPI surprises to the downside.
Bias into NY: Short NZD/USD while the RBNZ maintains its easing stance and spec positioning is so short, with a near-term target of 0.5900. A higher-than-expected US PPI could amplify USD strength, accelerating the Kiwi’s decline.