Snapshot: EUR/GBP trades at 0.8650, down 0.20% on the session, pinned by the rate divergence between the ECB and BoE. De Guindos’s FT interview overnight offered no fresh catalyst. Watch for further direction from UK wage data later in the week.
- Key level: 0.8647 represents the lower bound of today’s range; breach opens a test of 0.8620.
- Risk: Upside surprise in UK wages could fuel further Sterling strength, potentially squeezing EUR/GBP shorts.
Bias into NY: Favor selling rallies toward 0.8670, targeting a retest of the 0.8640 area, given the BoE’s current hawkish stance relative to the ECB and the potential for hawkish UK wage surprises. DXY strength amplifies downside risk.