Snapshot: AUD/USD trades at 0.7175, up 0.10%, buoyed by copper strength and a slightly softer US 10-year yield. The market is squarely focused on the RBA rate decision and statement at 14:30 AEST, where a hold is widely expected.
- Watch for any shift in tone around services inflation and the labour market in the RBA statement; a surprisingly hawkish slant would trigger a squeeze, given the crowded long positioning (96th percentile).
- ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 ET will provide a cross-check on the US economic outlook, though domestic drivers will dominate AUD sentiment today.
Bias into NY: Neutral-to-bullish, contingent on RBA rhetoric. A steady hand from Bullock, maintaining the current cautious stance, should see AUD/USD consolidate around the 0.7150-0.7200 range; a hawkish surprise could push it through 0.7200.