Snapshot: USD/CHF trades at 0.7838, down 0.02% on the day, as markets anticipate Swiss CPI data due at 08:30 CET. The SNB’s active easing posture, underscored by the recent 25bp rate cut and Governor Schlegel’s openness to negative rates, continues to weigh on the Swissy. Today’s CPI print represents a key catalyst.
- Watch for a break below 0.7825, the intraday low, which could signal further downside.
- Risk stems from the upcoming US ISM Services PMI at 10:00 ET, which could provide a counter-narrative if it significantly outperforms expectations.
Bias into NY: Short USD/CHF. The SNB’s commitment to combating CHF strength and the prospect of further easing, coupled with relatively low Swiss yields, favour continued weakness; a breach of 0.7800 is in sight if CPI misses.