Snapshot: Brent is holding above $111, supported by supply concerns and rising geopolitical tensions. The dominant domestic driver remains the anticipation of the ISM Manufacturing data at 10:00 ET, with the prices component particularly relevant for gauging inflationary pressures and its potential impact on energy demand. Firmer US real yields continue to present a headwind.
- Watch for a break above $112, which would confirm the bullish momentum.
- Downside risk stems from a surprisingly weak ISM print, potentially triggering a risk-off move.
Bias into NY: We expect Brent to remain bid, targeting $113 if the ISM Manufacturing PMI prints above expectations, while a print below 52.7 could see a test of $110. Rising US yields and dollar strength provide a challenging backdrop, but supply-side concerns should prevail.