Where we are: EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1694, up 0.15% on the session and bouncing from an overnight low of 1.1656. The pair is testing the upper end of its intraday range (1.1656-1.1719), with the prior NY close representing initial resistance. A sustained break above 1.1719 would open the door to further gains.
What’s driving it: The Euro is finding some support ahead of today’s ECB announcements, though the overall tone remains cautious. The central bank, following its recent 25bp cut on April 17th, is widely expected to hold steady today, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.50%. German GDP data and Eurozone CPI prints due this morning will set the stage for the ECB’s policy statement and press conference later today. The softer bund yields, with the DE 2Y down 10bp to 2.645%, reflects market expectations of continued mild easing bias from the ECB.
- ECB cut 25bp on 2026-04-17, retaining meeting-by-meeting language.
- Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate expected to rise to 3.0% y/y (prior 2.5%).
- CFTC data shows net non-commercial Euro positioning at +41,324 contracts, modestly long but only at the 10th percentile, leaving room for a squeeze if the ECB surprises hawkishly.
NY session focus: All eyes are on the ECB’s Main Refinancing Rate announcement at 14:15 CET and the subsequent press conference at 14:45 CET. Focus will be on any hints regarding the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts. A hawkish tilt could see EUR/USD test 1.1750, while a dovish stance could lead to a retest of the 1.1650 level. Ahead of that, the 08:30 ET US Advance GDP and Core PCE prints will provide competing data for the pair. The pain trade for the Euro is a hawkish ECB struggling to contain upside surprises in the US data and an Iran war continuing to stoke supply risks.