Snapshot: Brent Crude trades at 109.40, down 1.59% on the day, after a volatile overnight session saw prices spike to $126 on US-Iran escalation fears. The subsequent pullback suggests the market is struggling to sustain conflict-premium pricing ahead of 08:30 ET US GDP data.
- Watch for support around the 107.14 daily low; a break could trigger further downside as conflict premium unwinds.
- Upside risk remains if the 08:30 ET US GDP print is significantly weaker than the 2.2% forecast, reigniting stagflation fears and supporting oil as an inflation hedge.
Bias into NY: Cautiously bearish. A retest of daily lows is probable if US data surprises to the upside, with DXY strength adding to the pressure.