Asset Summary – Monday, 24 November
GBPUSD faces downward pressure as the UK’s economic outlook dims ahead of the upcoming budget. The Chancellor’s challenge to meet fiscal rules, coupled with potential cuts to growth forecasts and widening deficits, creates uncertainty. Weak economic data, including high borrowing, stagnant business activity, declining retail sales, and poor consumer sentiment, further weigh on the pound. Easing inflation, increasing the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in December, adds to the bearish sentiment surrounding the currency. The market’s anticipation of a rate cut suggests investors are positioning for a weaker pound.
EURUSD experienced downward pressure, falling to a multi-week low, driven by a combination of factors. Dovish comments from a US Federal Reserve official increased anticipation of reduced US interest rates, making the dollar less attractive and impacting the pair. While Eurozone private-sector activity demonstrated healthy expansion, it was not enough to fully counter the rate expectations. Revised Eurozone growth forecasts, particularly those citing increased exports to the US, offer some underlying support for the euro. Furthermore, reports of potential progress towards a Ukraine peace plan, however unconfirmed, could reduce geopolitical risks, potentially influencing investment flows and the euro’s valuation.
DOW JONES is poised for potential gains as indicated by the rise in Dow futures. This positive outlook is influenced by increasing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which typically boosts market sentiment and investment. Additionally, the possibility of Nvidia being allowed to export AI chips to China is contributing to the positive sentiment, as this could improve the financial performance of tech companies and, by extension, the overall market. The combination of these factors suggests a potentially favorable trading day for the Dow Jones.
FTSE 100 experienced upward momentum, continuing a multi-day rally driven primarily by positive performances in the precious metal mining and banking sectors. Gains in Endeavour, Fresnillo, Standard Chartered, and Barclays, alongside other financial institutions, significantly contributed to the index’s rise. Mining stocks, excluding Anglo American, generally performed well, further bolstering the FTSE 100’s value. However, uncertainty surrounding Anglo American’s future, particularly in light of BHP’s withdrawn acquisition interest and the ongoing merger with Teck, negatively impacted its stock price, creating a drag on overall performance. The upcoming UK budget is also anticipated to be a factor influencing investor sentiment and potentially shaping future trading activity.
GOLD is exhibiting upward price pressure as investors anticipate upcoming US economic reports that could influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. The market’s increased anticipation of an interest rate cut in December, fueled by recent statements from Fed officials, is also supporting gold’s value. Furthermore, existing factors like trade tensions, geopolitical instability, consistent central bank purchases, and a strong desire among investors for a safe haven asset against fiscal uncertainties contribute to a positive long-term outlook, evidenced by the significant year-to-date gains.