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NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 4 May
Regime: Risk-off, with escalating Middle East tensions driving haven demand and weighing on equities; VIX at 16.89. Today’s market themes: Geopolitical risk: Oil spike and risk-off sentiment due to heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. USD strength: Continued consolidation after recent gains, influenced by yield differentials and risk aversion. ECB policy divergence: ECB hints…
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Gold Under Pressure from Rising Real Yields – Monday, 4 May
Where we are: Gold currently trades around $4,540 per ounce, testing its lowest level since late March. Overnight, bullion remained in a narrow range but is showing downside pressure as NY traders prepare to come online. The key level to watch remains the March low around $4,500, a break of which could trigger further selling.…
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Friday, 1 May
Regime: Mixed — VIX is elevated at 18.81, while US 10Y yields are up 6bp on the day, suggesting a grind higher driven by real-rate repricing. Today’s market themes: Real-rate repricing: higher yields pressuring risk assets amid sticky inflation data USD/JPY intervention risk: markets remain on high alert after suspected BOJ action yesterday ISM Manufacturing:…
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Gold Under Pressure as Real Yields Rise – Friday, 1 May
Where we are: Gold is trading around $4,605, down from an overnight high of $4,620. Bullion is struggling to maintain its gains from the previous session, facing resistance around the $4,625 level. The price is currently below yesterday’s New York close, reflecting the pressure from rising real yields. What’s driving it: Rising US real yields…
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Thursday, 30 April
Regime: Risk-on, fueled by dovish central bank pivots and a weaker DXY (98.33), as global yields decline. Today’s market themes: Dovish repricing of global central bank outlooks, with focus on BoE and ECB. USD weakness amplified by potential intervention risks in USD/JPY, testing multi-decade highs. Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran) continue to underpin commodities volatility. The setup:…
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Gold Surge Fueled by DXY Drop – Thursday, 30 April
Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4646.7, up 92.0 points or 2.02% on the day, having traded in a range of 4550.9 to 4658.3. This rally marks a significant rebound from one-month lows and positions the metal well above yesterday’s close. The move is occurring despite a backdrop of rising real yields…
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Wednesday, 29 April
Regime: Mixed, as lower European equity indices and higher Brent prices offset positive sentiment from Bitcoin and US tech futures; VIX at 18.02. Today’s market themes: BoC policy decision and press conference: Expect hawkish guidance from Macklem as inflation remains stubbornly high. Hormuz Strait disruption fears support Oil: Geopolitical risks weigh as Brent hits one-month…
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Gold Suffers as Real Yields Climb Ahead of Fed – Wednesday, 29 April
Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4557.5, down 52.9 or -1.15% on the day. The intraday range has been 4557.4 to 4624.1, with the price currently near the low of the day. This marks a substantial move lower from yesterday’s close, driven primarily by rising real yields. What’s driving it: The primary…
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Tuesday, 28 April
Regime: Risk-off, as Nasdaq futures lead declines and gold tests three-week lows, driven by persistent inflation fears and higher front-end yields (US 2Y +3.5bp). Today’s market themes: OPEC+ uncertainty: UAE exit sparks oil supply concerns, boosting crude prices. BOJ disappointment: Yen weakens as BOJ holds policy, defying hawkish expectations. Australian Inflation: RBA to watch closely.…
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Gold Slides as Real Yields Stabilize – Tuesday, 28 April
Where we are: Gold (COMEX) is currently trading at 4591.0, down 107.7 or 2.29% on the day, testing three-week lows. The intraday range has been 4567.8 to 4716.4. This move lower extends the recent weakness and puts it well below Friday’s close, suggesting further downside pressure. What’s driving it: The primary driver for this pullback…
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Monday, 27 April
Today’s market themes: Iran tensions easing: potential peace proposal buoying risk assets, weighing on oil. BOJ hold: yen weakness continues post-policy announcement. Crowded positioning: squeeze risk in USD, JPY, AUD, BTC, and Copper. The setup: The market is pricing in reduced geopolitical risk following reports of a potential peace proposal from Iran, triggering a risk-on…
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Gold Drifts Lower as Iran Deadlock Persists – Monday, 27 April
Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at $4714.0, down $2.1 or -0.04% on the day, holding above overnight lows of $4686.7 but well off the high of $4745.6. The slight weakness comes after a four-week winning streak, although last week saw a 2.5% decline. Gold is softer in Asia after a mixed session, and…
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NY Session Tactical Brief – Saturday, 25 April
Today’s market themes: Iran talks: Shifting expectations for US-Iran negotiations drives swings in oil and risk sentiment. Dollar weakness: Broad USD selling pressure continues, impacting FX crosses and commodity prices. Tech rebound: Nasdaq leading equities higher, fueled by a rotation back into growth and mega-cap stocks. The setup: Equities are bid into the NY open…
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Gold Gains Momentum as Dollar Weakens – Saturday, 25 April
Where we are: Gold (COMEX) currently trades at 4740.9, up 0.54% and near the high of the day’s range (4672.2-4757.1). Bullion is catching a bid in early trading after finding support late in the EU session. Gold is building on gains from Friday after bouncing near 4650. The move is supported by a weaker dollar…
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Asset Summary – Friday, 24 April
Asset Summary – Friday, 24 April US DOLLAR experienced a mixed trading session, initially rising before retracing some gains. Optimism surrounding potential progress in US-Iran negotiations, indicated by reports of upcoming talks in Islamabad, and the extension of the ceasefire in Lebanon, weighed on the dollar. However, earlier in the week the dollar saw gains.…
